Category: Economy

  • Austrian government, €500 million package for restaurants and pubs

    Austrian government, €500 million package for restaurants and pubs

    The Austrian federal government presented a package worth €500 million for restaurants and pubs, a press release show.

    “The catering industry has been particularly hard hit by the corona crisis and therefore needs special measures. We have put together a package of tax relief on the one hand, and support and incentives on the other”, said Finance Minister Blümel.

    What the package includes

    The package includes a reduction of tax on non-alcoholic beverages to 10% until the end of 2020. This corresponds to relief of around €200 million. Simplification and relief through higher lump sums was also announced. The lump-sum limit will be increased from €255,000 to €400,000. By increasing the mobility lump sum from 2% to 4% in municipalities with up to 10,000 inhabitants, and to 6% in municipalities with up to 5,000 inhabitants, more money is made available for rural restaurants and pubs.

    Further, the maximum limit for tax-free meal vouchers has been raised from €4.4 to €8, the deductibility of business meals in inns increased from 50% to 75% by raising the applicable rate, and the tax on sparkling wine has been abolished.

    “Two brief illustrations: a village inn with a turnover of €115,000 per year currently pays €3,670 in taxes, but with these measures, it will pay only €871. Another example: an inn with an annual turnover of €160,000 currently pays taxes of €6,260 but will only pay €2,390 in future” said Finance Minister Blümel.

    The fixed cost subsidy details and changes were presented last week, so that urgently needed monies could reach companies – and especially local landlords – as quickly as possible.

  • 50% of German companies expect major revenue drop in 2020

    50% of German companies expect major revenue drop in 2020

    According to data gathered by AksjeBloggen, nearly half of the German companies expect major revenue drop in 2020 due to coronavirus pandemic.

    More than 25% of them expect revenue declined by more than 50%.

    Coronavirus outbreak affected 92% of the German economy

    The DIHK survey conducted in March 2020 among 15,000 German companies showed that 23% of respondents expect profits drop between 10% and 25% due to coronavirus outbreak.

    Another 26% of businesses stated they would probably experience a revenue decrease between 25% and 50%. Only 3% of respondents believed the coronavirus is not going to affect their revenue at all. Statistics showed 2% of German companies expected their income to increase in 2020.

    The survey also revealed the coronavirus outbreak affected almost 100% of German businesses in the hospitality and travel industry. More than 90% of companies in the wholesale, transport and storage, retail and business-related services also significantly noticed the impact of the pandemic.

    Manufacturing, health management, and construction industry follow with 88% and 86% of troubled companies, respectively. Statistics show that 92.4% of the entire German economy is affected by the coronavirus outbreak.

    Two-thirds of German companies require emergency Government grants

    The coronavirus also influenced how German companies evaluate their future. According to the DIHK survey, 63% of them expected less demand for their products and services in the following weeks.

    Cancellation of orders ranked as the second-leading problem with a 48% share among respondents. The standstill of business activity, liquidity shortfalls, and reduced investments followed with 43%, 41%, and 38% share.

    The survey also revealed almost 70% of German firms found emergency government grants and reduced hours compensation as the most relevant support measures during the coronavirus outbreak. Another 60% of them require a cut of advance payments.

    Government and bank loans follow with 31% and 16% share of companies who preferer this type of support measures.

  • In Hungary prices increased by 2.4% in April

    In Hungary prices increased by 2.4% in April

    • Consumer prices were 2.4% higher on average in April 2020 than a year earlier.
    • Significant price rises were measured over the past year for food as well as alcoholic beverages and tobacco.
    • Food prices increased at a higher rate than usual compared to March, which may have been caused by the effects of the corona virus epidemic.
    • Motor fuel prices went down markedly over a month as a result of significantly falling oil prices.

    Compared to March 2019, food prices went up by 8.7%, within which pork prices became 28.9%, the price of other meat preparations 22.3%, that of seasonal food items (potatoes, fresh vegetables and fruits) 15.1%, sugar prices 14.1% and salami, sausages and ham prices 12.5% higher.

    The price of alcoholic beverages and tobacco rose by 7.2% on average, within which tobacco prices by 11.1%. Consumers paid 3.0% more for services, within which the price of games of chance increased by 7.8% and rent by 5.6%. Motor fuel prices were cut by 22.7%.

    In January–April 2020 compared to the same period of the previous year consumer prices went up by 3.9% on average.

  • Fitch downgrades Slovakia. The outlook is stable

    Fitch downgrades Slovakia. The outlook is stable

    Fitch Ratings has downgraded Slovakia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘A’ from ‘A+’. The Outlook is stable.

    Fitch forecasts that real GDP will shrink by 10% in 2020, as Slovakia’s open economy is hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand will be significantly weaker and restrictions on activity will depress domestic demand.

    A lockdown of economic activity (in place since 13 March) will be progressively loosened from mid-May and the economy will begin recovering from the second half of 2020, with growth forecast at 6.8% in 2021.

    The auto industry, which accounts for 13% of GDP and 24.2% of exports (2018), shut down production as the lockdown was imposed, before restarting phased operations from mid-April. Fitch expects that planned investments for capacity expansion will be subject to renewed uncertainty given that external demand will take time to recover.

    Fitch has sharply revised its general government balance forecast downwards to -7.7% of GDP for 2020 (previous review: -0.8%; 2019: -1.3%), compared with a current peer median of -8.5%.

    The government has announced support measures worth around 6% of GDP, which will comprise direct fiscal support, liquidity support and guarantees.

    Of these, the fiscal cost of wage payments under the Kurzarbeit scheme is expected to amount to 1.6% of projected 2020 GDP, while the introduction of a recurring 13th month pension will cost an estimated 0.7% of GDP.

    Fitch expects revenue to decline by 10.5% in 2020 (equivalent to 1.1pp of GDP), as tax and social security receipts fall due to the economic contraction.

  • The number of overnight stays for guests in Czechia decreased by 16.7%

    The number of overnight stays for guests in Czechia decreased by 16.7%

    In the Q1 2020, the total number of guests in collective accommodation establishments decreased by 22.2%, year-on-year, and the number of overnight stays of guests in collective accommodation establishments decreased by 16.7%.

    In January and February, accommodation was still reporting positive increments. In March, during which providing of accommodation services has been limited, the number of the accommodated dropped by two thirds.

    The number of overnight stays of guests in collective accommodation establishments reached 8.9 million nights in total in the Q1 2020, which was by 16.7% less compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

    The number of overnight stays of guests from the Czech Republic decreased by 13.1% and the number of overnight stays of guests from abroad decreased by a fifth.

    The number of overnight stays in hotels in total decreased by 18.9%, y-o-y, and in boarding houses by 11%. The number of overnight stays in tourist campsites was halved.

    As for the regional comparison, the numbers of arrivals dropped in all regions. Expressed as a percentage, the deepest drop of guests was in the Jihočeský Region (29.3%), in South Moravia (27.9%), and in Prague (27.4%).

    The highest number of guests from abroad came from Germany

    The numbers of arrivals decreased as for all source foreign markets. In the Q1 2020, the highest number of guests from abroad came from Germany.

    335 thousand of Germans were accommodated in the surveyed collective accommodation establishments, which was by 17.4% less than in the previous year.

    The number of Russians dropped by 11% and Poles by 15%. The number of guests from Slovakia decreased by a fourth. Arrivals of Italians dropped by 40%. The number of guests from China and South Korea more than halved.

  • Almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP in 2019 was generated by Germany

    Almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP in 2019 was generated by Germany

    In 2019, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the European Union (EU) stood at around €13 900 billion at current prices. In real terms, the EU’s GDP in 2019 was 17% higher than its level one decade earlier, shows Eurostat.

    Almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP (24.7%) was generated by Germany, followed by France (17.4%) and Italy (12.8%), ahead of Spain (8.9%) and the Netherlands (5.8%).

    At the opposite end of the scale, ten EU Member States contributed less than 1% of the EU’s total GDP: Malta (which had the lowest share of EU GDP at 0.1%), Estonia, Cyprus and Latvia (all 0.2%), Lithuania and Slovenia (both 0.3%), Bulgaria and Croatia (both 0.4%), Luxembourg (0.5%) and Slovakia (0.7%).

    The 19 EU Member States that comprise the euro area had a combined GDP of €11 900 billion and accounted for 85.5% of the EU’s GDP in 2019.

  • Number of nights spent by tourists in Hungary fell by 65% in March

    Number of nights spent by tourists in Hungary fell by 65% in March

    As a result of the coronavirus epidemic, in March 2020, the number of nights spent by international tourists fell by 68% and that of nights spent by domestic tourists by 61% compared to the same period of the previous year in hotels, boarding houses, camping sites, bungalow complexes and community hostels.

    Total gross sales revenues declined by 60% at current prices in commercial accommodation establishments.

    In March 2020, compared to the same month of the previous year the number of international tourist arrivals decreased by 74% and of international tourism nights by 68%. 107 thousand guests spent 316 thousand tourism nights in commercial accommodation establishments.

    All accommodation types and regions saw large declines.

    Accommodation establishments in Budapest and Western Transdanubia recorded a decrease of almost 70% in the number of tourism nights. Compared to March 2019, the number of tourism nights fell to a third from Europe and to less than a quarter from Asia and America.

    The number of Russian and Ukrainian tourism nights roughly halved with a lower-than-average decline. Guests from our most important sending country, Germany, spent 62% fewer nights in Hungarian accommodation establishments.

    Domestic arrivals and tourism nights were down by 64% and by 61% respectively to 166 thousand arrivals and 381 thousand tourism nights.

    Compared to March 2019, the number of tourism nights fell by more than half in all regions and by more than two thirds in the Budapest-Central Danube region and at Lake Tisza.

  • Relaunching retail, tourism and offering support for SMEs, the main lockdown exit measures in Europe

    Relaunching retail, tourism and offering support for SMEs, the main lockdown exit measures in Europe

    All European countries took certain measures to protect and restart their economies after the lockdown period.

    Among governments’ priorities, retail, tourism and SMEs have benefited from most measures, considering that these areas have been the most impacted by the Covid-19 epidemics across Europe, according to Colliers International.

    Romania has so far taken measures like direct funding support for SMEs, as well as deferred taxes and waivers for penalties for late payments and will focus on a retail relaunch strategy after the exit from the state of emergency.

    Many European countries are already in the second phase of the Covid-19 epidemics evolution, implementing exit strategies from the lockdown. More than half of EMEA countries monitored by Colliers International in terms of government stimulus and strategy have already outlined and some even deployed a phased exit strategy from their national lockdown, with many targeting retail, tourism and SMEs. In terms of real estate, the vast majority of European countries have focused their initial strategy around the reopening of retail in a variety of forms, alongside schools.

    Focusing on SMEs is relevant due to the structure of most European economies, including Romania’s. Micro-, small- and medium-sized companies make up over 99% of the total number of enterprises in Romania and in the EU, while generating two in three jobs in all economies and a bit over half of the gross value added. So while smaller companies may not be as efficient as the larger ones in terms of value added, they are more relevant from a social impact standpoint.

    Measures maintain social and physical distancing

    Most phased exits concern reopening retail shops and services, with DIY, garden centres and hair salons top of the list. In the vast majority of cases, the HoReCa sector reopening will follow in late May or early June, according to specialists.

    Some European countries also have a school reopening strategy, with kindergartens being favoured over primary or secondary education levels, thus providing greater capacity for parents to return to work. In Southern Europe, however, including Romania, the current guidance states schools will not open until autumn.

    Exiting the lockdown – the great comeback

    Germany, Austria and Switzerland are leading the recovery and these countries have seen a marked improvement in terms of falling numbers of active COVID-19 cases levelling off, resulting in a shift towards exiting the lockdown.

    Other countries around this core of Europe, like Denmark, Czechia, Slovakia and Italy, have also moved into a phased lockdown exit, albeit at different speeds and under slightly different circumstances.

    Additional countries that have seen COVID-19 cases levelling off and adopting a phased exit strategy are within the broader CEE region, including Croatia, Montenegro, Lithuania and Latvia. Israel adds to the EMEA picture.

    Romania, direct funding support for SMEs

    One of the most important measures taken by Romania for the business sector’s recovery has been direct funding support for SMEs, micro enterprises and small businesses, which has been rolled out fairly recently.

    At the same time, the Government allowed companies with no late payments to banks to request postponed loan repayment as long as they hold a certificate issued by the Government which shows a major decline in business in March on account of the state of emergency. Also, some taxes could be deferred and some penalties for late payments have been waived.

    The state also decided to cover a technical unemployment payment of up to 75% of the average gross wage in the economy for people made redundant in this period, which has been, arguably, the most utilized state facility thus far.

    The government promised to shoulder part of the wages going forward if companies rehire these people, but no specifics are currently clear regarding this. While most measures have been geared towards SMEs, government officials also stated that they would come forward with aid for bigger companies.

    Specifically, for the real estate sector, a new law adopted by the Parliament, yet to be ratified by the President, offers landlords the chance to not pay income tax on rental revenues through 2020 if they reduce their tenants’ rents.

    Support measures for real estate in Europe

    Some of the biggest European countries have taken extensive economic measures to protect their economies, including the real estate sector. In Italy, a law decree on 18th March provides a tax credit – 60% of the rent of March 2020 for shops and boutiques, subject to extension. In France, a law protects SMEs from eviction in the event they cannot meet rent or service charge payments, starting 12 March until 2 months after the end of the state emergency.

    In Germany and the United Kingdom, the governments imposed a moratorium on evictions, while in Hungary tenant evictions are suspended until the end of the state of emergency. Other countries, like Greece, pushed for a reduction in rents while also providing compensatory measures to landlords, while in Austria, rent subsidies were offered by the state if certain conditions were met.

    Almost all the countries took measures regarding the financing access for SMEs and the companies most affected. UK, Germany, Italy, France and Austria announced packages estimated at tenths or hundreds of billions of euros each to help the economy. Also, most of the governments announced state guarantees packages or loan payments moratoriums to avoid a complete freezing in the financing sector with dire consequences in the entire European economy.

  • One in three people in EU unable to face unexpected financial expenses

    One in three people in EU unable to face unexpected financial expenses

    • In the European Union (EU), almost one in three people were unable to face unexpected financial expenses (32%) in 2019.
    • These people were not able to face unexpected financial expenses such as costs for surgery, a funeral, a replacement of washing machine or a car in 2019.

    Since its peak in 2012 (40%), the ability to handle unexpected expenses has improved markedly. Due to lockdown implemented across the world in 2020 to slow down the rapid spread of the coronavirus, the ability to face unexpected financial expenses is crucial, especially in case of loss of income.  

    The highest shares of people unable to face unexpected financial expenses was reported among single person households: 40% of single persons were unable to face unexpected financial expenses, and in particular 56% of single persons with children. Higher shares were recorded for single females (43%) than for single males (36%).

    In contrast, the lowest shares were recorded in households with two adults: 25% were unable to face unexpected financial expenses; 28% of two adult households with one dependent child and 26% of those with two dependent children.

    Among all household types, the proportion of people unable to face unexpected financial expenses was lowest for two adults, of whom at least one is 65 or over (24%).

    Inability to face unexpected financial expenses highest in Croatia, lowest in Malta

    Among the EU Member States, the share of people unable to face unexpected financial expenses was highest in Croatia (52%), followed by Latvia (50%), Greece and Cyprus (both 48%), Lithuania (47%) and Romania (44%).

    Fewer than one in four people were unable to face unexpected financial expenses in Denmark (23%), Czechia and the Netherlands (both 22%), Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden (all 20%, 2018 data) as well as Malta (15%).

  • Poland Open Pension Funds amounted to PLN 1.4 billion in 2019

    Poland Open Pension Funds amounted to PLN 1.4 billion in 2019

    The financial result of Open Pension Funds (OFE) in 2019 amounted to PLN 1.4 billion, compared to a loss of PLN 17.0 billion in 2018, show the latest Statistics Poland data.

    Net assets of OFE at the end of 2019 amounted to PLN 154.8 billion, which means a decrease by PLN 2.5 billion during the year.

    Open Pension Funds members

    According to Central Register of OFEs’ members in Social Insurance Institution (ZUS), 2019, 15.7 million members were registered as of December 31, 1.5% less than the year before.

    The number of members decreased by 231,512 persons.

    Members accounts managed by OFE

    Number of members’ accounts managed by Open Pension Funds amounted to 16.0 million as of December 31, 2019.

    Contributions and interests

    ZUS transferred PLN 3.5 billion of contributions and PLN 5.4 million of interest to OFE in 2019. The amount of contributions paid to OFE was higher by PLN 143.4 million and the amount of interest paid was higher by PLN 0.3 million compared to 2018.

    In the period from May 19, 1999 to December 31, 2019, the ZUS transferred PLN 219.6 billion of contributions and PLN 3.7 billion of interest to OFE.

  • Four consumer behavior trends emerge during the COVID-19 pandemic

    Four consumer behavior trends emerge during the COVID-19 pandemic

    The COVID-19 crisis is being defined by four distinct consumer behavior segments, according to the first edition of the EY Future Consumer Index, a survey of 4,859 people tracking consumer sentiment and behavior across the US, Canada, the UK, France and Germany.

    These are “Cut deep,” “Stay calm, carry on,” “Save and stockpile” and “Hibernate and spend”.

    Consumers that fall into the “Cut deep” segment (27.3%) are spending less across all expense categories as the pandemic impacts employment; others representing the “Stay calm, carry on” category are continuing to spend as normal (26.2%).

    Most consumers (35.1%) represent the “Save and stockpile” segment, indicating that they feel pessimistic about the future, while consumers that fall into the “Hibernate and spend” segment (11.4%) are spending more across the board.

    Cut deep

    These consumers are mainly more than 45 years old and have seen the biggest impact on their employment status. Almost a quarter have seen their jobs suspended, either temporarily or permanently. Seventy-eight percent of them are shopping less frequently, while 64% are only buying essentials. Thirty-three percent feel that brands are far less important to them in the current climate.

    Stay calm, carry on

    These consumers do not feel directly impacted by the pandemic and are not changing their spending habits. Just 21% of them are spending more on groceries, compared with 18% that are spending less.

    Save and stockpile

    This segment shows particular concern for their families and the long-term outlook. More than a third (36%) are now spending more on groceries, while most are spending less on clothing (72%) and leisure (85%).

    Hibernate and spend

    Primarily aged 18-44, these consumers are most concerned about the impact of the pandemic. However, only 40% of this segment say they are shopping less frequently. And while 42% say the products they buy have changed significantly, 46% of them say brands are now more important to them.

    Five new segments may emerge as consumers move beyond the pandemic

    The four segments identified could morph into five very different ones as the crisis abates. For example, the Index currently suggests that over time, most consumers in the “Save and stockpile” segment will migrate to two new segments: “Remain frugal” and “Cautiously extravagant.”

    These new consumer segments, detailed in the Index, could emerge post-COVID-19 and be summarized as: “Keep cutting” (13.1%), “Stay frugal” (21.7%), “Get to normal” (31.4%), “Cautiously extravagant” (24.7%) and “Back with a bang” (9.1%).

  • Swiss GDP set for sharpest fall in decades

    Swiss GDP set for sharpest fall in decades

    • Swiss GDP to fall very sharply in 2020 in the wake of the measures being taken to contain the coronavirus.
    • Furthermore, the economy is only likely to recover slowly in 2021.
    • All data are available after The Expert Group on Economics has updated its economic forecast.

    The Expert Group on Economic forecasts is expecting GDP adjusted for sporting events to fall by 6.7% in 2020 (March 2020 forecast: −1.5%) and unemployment to average 3.9% over the year as a whole. This would make it the biggest slump in economic activity since 1975.

    A modest recovery should set in with the planned relaxation of health policy measures. However, losses of income caused by an increase in short-time working and rising unemployment as well as the considerable economic uncertainty will limit the amount of lost ground that private consumption will be able to make up in the second half of the year. Overall, private consumption could fall even more sharply than GDP in 2020.

    The Expert Group is also expecting the global economy to mount only a sluggish recovery in subsequent quarters, with key trading partners, chiefly the major southern European countries, facing a particularly fierce battle against lasting consequences of the coronavirus crisis.

    This will hit the segments of Swiss foreign trade that are sensitive to the economic cycle particularly hard. All in all, production capacity in Switzerland is likely to be significantly underutilised and uncertainty extremely high, resulting in a very sharp decline in investments as well as job losses.

    Slow recovery in 2021

    The Expert Group is expecting Swiss GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2021 (March forecast: 3.3%).

    This would be a relatively slow rise from a very low starting point, meaning that the level of GDP seen at the end of 2019 would not yet have been reached by the end of the forecast period.

    An improvement to the situation on the labour market is also expected to be hesitant at best: unemployment is set to rise further to 4.1% in 2021, with employment only likely to see a minimal rise.