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Tag: austria gdp

  • Erste Group expects an economic upturn for CEE countries in 2021

    Erste Group expects an economic upturn for CEE countries in 2021

    The corona pandemic caused the CEE economies to enter into recession in 2020, although that economic contraction has turned out to be less severe than had been originally assumed.

    While the impact on Serbia was comparatively mild with a GDP decline of -1.1% in 2020, the Croatian economy plunged by -8.5% compared with 2019.

    In Austria, the GDP decline in the past year was also comparatively strong at -7.2%.

    According to preliminary data, the GDP downturn in 2020 amounted to -5.6% in the Czech Republic, -5.2% in Slovakia, -5.1% in Hungary and -3.9% in Romania.

    Erste Group sees a turnaround in 2021, with the strongest GDP growth expected in Hungary (+5.5%) and Serbia (+5.0%).

    The economies of Croatia, Romania and Slovakia should all also grow by more than 4%, with the Czech Republic very close behind with an expected rise of 3.9%.

    The GDP dynamic that some CEE countries evidenced in the final quarter of 2020 gives reason for optimism: the Hungarian, Slovak and Romanian economies unexpectedly posted growth in Q4 2020 compared with the preceding quarter.

  • Austrian economy grew by 12% in Q3 2020 compared to previous quarter

    Austrian economy grew by 12% in Q3 2020 compared to previous quarter

    From July to September 2020, the Austrian gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 12.0% in real terms compared to April to June, as Statistics Austria reports.

    Compared to the third quarter 2019, a decline of 4.0% in real terms was recorded.

    The temporary easing of measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic stimulated nearly all industries, private consumption, capital formation as well as foreign trade.

    Overall, however, the economy remained below the pre-crisis level.

    Recovery of consumption

    In the third quarter of 2020, consumption of private households showed a substantial growth of 13.3% in real terms compared to the previous quarter.

    The decline of 5.1% compared to the third quarter of 2019 can be traced back to a still weak demand for services.

    In contrast, demand for durable consumption goods, in particular furniture, recorded a substantial catch-up effect (+7.7% in real terms compared to the previous year’s third quarter).

    Surge in growth of services

    Nearly all industries recovered during the summer months. Above all, the industries most affected by the lockdown during the first half of the year recorded remarkable real growth rates from the second to the third quarter.

    Trade and transportation as well as accommodation and food services grew by 32.9% (-4.5% compared to the third quarter of 2019).

    Arts, recreation and personal services increased by 39.2%. However, the losses were not fully compensated (-7.7% in real terms compared to the third quarter of 2019). 

    Manufacturing and construction also recorded an increase

    Manufacturing also gained momentum during the third quarter of 2020 (+15.7% in real terms compared to the previous quarter, -4.0% in real terms compared to the previous year’s quarter).

    Construction recorded real growth of 10.1% compared to the previous quarter and thereby reached pre-crisis levels (+0.2% in real terms compared to the previous year’s quarter). 

    Industries which were rarely affected by the lockdown, such as real estate activities, public administration and health services, remained overall stable (real estate activities: -0.4% in real terms compared to the second quarter and +1.5% in real terms compared to the third quarter of 2019, public administration and health services: +0.5% in real terms compared to the second quarter and +0.6% in real terms compared to the third quarter of 2019).

  • Austrian economy dropped by 12.1% in the second quarter of 2020

    Austrian economy dropped by 12.1% in the second quarter of 2020

    The Austrian gross domestic product (GDP) dropped by 12.1% in volume terms during the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2020 and by 14.3% compared to the second quarter of 2019, according to Statistics Austria.

    In 2019, the Austrian economy grew by 1.4%, which means a slowdown in growth dynamics compared to the previous years (2017: +2.4%; 2018: +2.6%).

    Private consumption declined by 12.6% in volume terms compared to the previous quarter (-16.1% compared to Q2/2019), mainly due to the lockdown of leisure services (accommodation, food service, arts and entertainment).

    Consumption of housing (rents, electricity) and food/beverages grew slightly.

    The COVID-19 measures also left their mark in the service sector, with accommodation and food services being most affected.

    They recorded a decline of 65.2% in volume terms compared to the first quarter of 2020 (-61.1% compared to Q2/2019). As expected, arts, entertainment and recreation also suffered losses (-27.0% in volume terms compared to Q1/2020; -35.3% compared to Q2/2019).

    In total, each economic activity recorded negative volume growth in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter in 2020.

    Real estate activities (-0.7% in volume terms compared to Q1/2020; +2.2% compared to Q2/2019), health and public administration (-0.5% in volume terms compared to Q1/2020; -0.6% compared to Q2/2019) as well as information and communication (-1.3% in volume terms compared to Q1/2020; +1.1% compared to Q2/2019) were hardly affected.

    Similar to the development of foreign trade, manufacturing already slowed down in 2019. The lockdown then led to another remarkable slump by 15.6% in terms of volume compared to the first quarter of 2020 (-18.4% compared to Q2/2019).