Money Buzz! Europa

Tag: gdp

  • Austrian economy dropped by 12.1% in the second quarter of 2020

    Austrian economy dropped by 12.1% in the second quarter of 2020

    The Austrian gross domestic product (GDP) dropped by 12.1% in volume terms during the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2020 and by 14.3% compared to the second quarter of 2019, according to Statistics Austria.

    In 2019, the Austrian economy grew by 1.4%, which means a slowdown in growth dynamics compared to the previous years (2017: +2.4%; 2018: +2.6%).

    Private consumption declined by 12.6% in volume terms compared to the previous quarter (-16.1% compared to Q2/2019), mainly due to the lockdown of leisure services (accommodation, food service, arts and entertainment).

    Consumption of housing (rents, electricity) and food/beverages grew slightly.

    The COVID-19 measures also left their mark in the service sector, with accommodation and food services being most affected.

    They recorded a decline of 65.2% in volume terms compared to the first quarter of 2020 (-61.1% compared to Q2/2019). As expected, arts, entertainment and recreation also suffered losses (-27.0% in volume terms compared to Q1/2020; -35.3% compared to Q2/2019).

    In total, each economic activity recorded negative volume growth in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter in 2020.

    Real estate activities (-0.7% in volume terms compared to Q1/2020; +2.2% compared to Q2/2019), health and public administration (-0.5% in volume terms compared to Q1/2020; -0.6% compared to Q2/2019) as well as information and communication (-1.3% in volume terms compared to Q1/2020; +1.1% compared to Q2/2019) were hardly affected.

    Similar to the development of foreign trade, manufacturing already slowed down in 2019. The lockdown then led to another remarkable slump by 15.6% in terms of volume compared to the first quarter of 2020 (-18.4% compared to Q2/2019).

  • 6 out of 10 countries with highest national debt-to-GDP ratio are EU nations

    6 out of 10 countries with highest national debt-to-GDP ratio are EU nations

    Data presented by Buy Shares shows that six European Union countries make up the top ten nations with a highest National-to-GDP ratio.

    From the research, Japan has the highest ratio at 268.21%.

    U.S. debt continues to spike 

    Greece is second with a ratio of 214.29% while the Itlay is third at 156.92%. The United States has the fifth highest debt-to-GDP ratio at 136.69% while the United Kingdom is tenth at 100.87%.

    The Buy Shares report also overviewed countries with the highest GDP and also the highest national debt.

    As of September 3rd, the United States has the highest GDP $19.54 trillion followed by China at $14.57 trillion. Japan’s GDP almost five times less compared to the US at $4.53 trillion.

    Under national debt, the United States is on top with $26.71 trillion. The debt is almost double compared to second-placed Japan with a debt of $12.15 trillion.  China has the third highest national debt globally at $7.32 trillion.

    The US national debt continues to spiral to historical levels threatening the economy. According to the research report:

    The U.S. is among countries that pumped more money into the economy to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

  • Poland gross domestic product decreased by 8.2% in the second quarter

    Poland gross domestic product decreased by 8.2% in the second quarter

    Gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020 was lower by 8.2% year-on-year comparison against the growth of 4.6 % in the correspording quarter of 2019.

    In the 2nd quarter of 2020 seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) (constant  prices, reference year 2010) was lower by 8.9% than in the previous quarter and 7.9% lower than in the 2nd quarter of the previous  year.

    The presented preliminary estimate of GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2020 includes effects of COVID-19 and the introduction of government measures to prevent the consequences of the epidemic.

  • Serbia gross domestic product decreased by 9.2% in the second quarter

    Serbia gross domestic product decreased by 9.2% in the second quarter

    According to seasonally adjusted GDP data, gross domestic product decreased by 9.2% in the second quarter of 2020, compared to the previous quarter.

    In the second quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, significant real fall in the gross value added was recorded in the section of wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transportation and storage and accommodation and food service activities – 16.7%, the section of industry and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities – 7.7%, and the section of professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative and support service activities – 20.6%.

    Significant real growth in the gross value added was recorded in the section of information and communication – 5.4% and the section of public administration and defence; compulsory social security; education and human health and social work activities – 7.1%.

    Real growth was noted only for the general government final consumption expenditure – 8.9%.

    Real fall was registered for all other aggregates: the household final consumption expenditure – 8.0%, the non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) final consumption expenditure – 4.7%, gross fixed capital formation – 11.9%, the exports of goods and services – 20.7% and the import of goods and services – 19.3%.

  • Italy GDP decreased by 12.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2020

    Italy GDP decreased by 12.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2020

    In the second quarter of 2020 Italian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 12.8 per cent to the previous quarter and by 17.7 per cent in comparison with the second quarter of 2019.

    Compared to previous quarter, final consumption expenditure decreased by 8.7 per cent, gross fixed capital formation by 14.9 per cent, imports and exports by 20.5 per cent and 26.4 per cent respectively.

    Compared to the second quarter of 2019, final consumption expenditure decreased by 13.7 per cent, gross fixed capital formation by 21.6 per cent, imports by 26.8 per cent, and exports by 33.1 per cent.

    The carry-over annual GDP growth for 2020 is equal to -14.7 per cent.

  • U.S. GDP biggest quarterly slump in last 70 years at 32.9%

    U.S. GDP biggest quarterly slump in last 70 years at 32.9%

    Data presented by Buy Shares indicates that the United States’ real GDP slumped by 32.9% during Q2 2020. The drop was the worst in about seventy-three years.

    Over the last 70 years, notable slumps were recorded at the end of Q1 1958 when the real GDP declined by 10%.

    During Q2 of 1980, there was also a major drop of 8%. In the wake of the recession at the end of Q4 2008, the real GDP declined by 8.4%.

    The Buy Shares research also overviewed the real US GDP figures over the last decade where the highest figure was recorded in 2019 at $19.09 trillion.

    By Q1 2020, the GDP dropped to but $19.01 trillion. 

    By Q2 2020, the real GDP dropped by 9.5% to about $17.2 trillion. Over the last ten years, the lowest GDP was recorded in 2010 at $15.59 trillion. 

  • Slovakia GDP decreased by 12.1% in the second quarter of 2020

    Slovakia GDP decreased by 12.1% in the second quarter of 2020

    In the second quarter of 2020 the gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices decreased by 12.1% as compared to the same quarter of 2019.

    After seasonal adjustment GDP decreased by 12.1% as compared to the second quarter of 2019 and by 8.3% in comparison with the previous quarter.

    The volume of GDP at current prices in the second quarter of 2020 reached EUR 21,210.5 million what represented the decrease by 10.4% in comparison with the same quarter of 2019.

    The GDP slighter decline than expected was caused by increased activity in the last month of the second quarter in key industries, especially car manufacturing, as well as small businesses.

    The positive foreign trade balance also contributed to the moderation of the decline in GDP.

  • Poland GDP down by 8.9% in the second quarter

    Poland GDP down by 8.9% in the second quarter

    In the second quarter of 2020 seasonally adjusted GDP (constant prices, reference year 2010) was lower by 8.9% than in the previous quarter and 7.9% lower than in the second  quarter of the previous year.

    Seasonally unadjusted GDP (constant average prices of the previous year) was lower by 8.2% than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

    The presented GDP flash estimate for the second quarter of 2020 includes effects of COVID-19 and the introduction of government measures to prevent the consequences of the pandemic.

    Statistics Poland show that „data is preliminary and can be subject to revision, in accordance with the revision policy of quarterly national accounts, in the first “regular” estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2020 which will be released on August 31, 2020”.

  • Bulgarian GDP, -8.2% in the second quarter of 2020

    Bulgarian GDP, -8.2% in the second quarter of 2020

    Bulgarian GDP recorded a fall by 8.2% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter of the previous year and with 9.8% compared to the first quarter of 2020 according to the seasonally adjusted data gathered by National Statistical Institute.

    According to the flash GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2020, the GDP at current prices is 27 058.4 million BGN.

    Gross Value Added in the second quarter of 2020 amounted to 23 510.4 million BGN.

    In the structure of GDP by the expenditure approach the largest share has the final consumption (78.9%), which in nominal terms is 21 345.6 million BGN.

    In the second quarter of 2020 gross capital formation is 5 114.8 million BGN and has a share of 18.9% in GDP. The external balance (exports minus imports) has a positive sign.

  • Hungary GDP down by 13.6% in the second quarter of 2020

    Hungary GDP down by 13.6% in the second quarter of 2020

    The gross domestic product of Hungary went down by 13.6% according to raw data and by 13.5% according to seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data in the 2nd quarter of 2020 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

    In the first half of the year, the economic performance decreased by 6.1% according to raw data gathered by Hungarian Central Statistical Office.

    Compared to the previous quarter, the volume of gross domestic product was down by 14.5% – according to seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data – in the 2nd quarter of 2020.

  • Italy GDP, -12,4% in the second quarter of 2020

    Italy GDP, -12,4% in the second quarter of 2020

    In the second quarter of 2020 Italy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 12.4 per cent with respect to the previous quarter and by 17.3 per cent over the same quarter of previous year, Istat shows.

    The second quarter of 2020 has had one working day less than both the previous and the same quarter of previous year.

    The quarter on quarter change is the result of a decrease of value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing, in that of industry as well as in services.

    From the demand side, there is a negative contribution both by the domestic component (gross of change in inventories) and the net export component.

    The carry-over annual GDP growth for 2020 is equal to -14.3%.

  • United States: Two-speed business bankruptcies

    United States: Two-speed business bankruptcies

    As the COVID-19 epidemic hits the United States very hard, Coface forecasts in its baseline scenario that the country’s GDP will contract by 5.6% in 2020, before rebounding by 3.3% in 2021.

    Nevertheless, this forecast is threatened by the resurgence of the outbreak in several states, which are already pausing or even reversing the resumption of activity after the extensive lockdown of April.

    On the bankruptcy front, the sharpest drop in GDP should be followed by a massive increase in business bankruptcy filings.

    Nonetheless, since the beginning of the crisis, the latter has fallen since February, driven by a significant drop of bankruptcy filings under Chapter 7 of the US bankruptcy law (liquidation).

    At the same time the number of companies seeking Chapter 11 protection (reorganization) is up sharply (+48% year-on-year in May), indicating that bankruptcies related to COVID-19 are already brewing. Coface forecasts bankruptcy to rebound in the second half of 2020, with an expected increase of 43% between the end of 2019 and the end of 2021.

    Furthermore, Coface’s estimates show that the “zombie” companies, which have grown over the last decade to represent more than 6% of companies in 2019, could also be pushed into bankruptcy in the coming months. The number of companies in difficulty is also likely to multiply as a result of the accumulation of debt.

    Falling bankruptcies in recent months: a sham situation

    2019 saw the first annual increase in bankruptcies since 2009 with an increase in proceedings initiated in 2019 by 2.5% compared to 2018. Data released after the first quarter of 2020 shows that after a jump of 21% in January, corporate bankruptcy proceedings began to decline starting in February.

    As in Europe, measures to support corporate liquidity, a wait-and-see attitude of debtor companies and the closure of bankruptcy courts might explain this trend.

    However, given the magnitude of the shock and while the support measures should gradually expire, business failures in the United States are expected to accelerate.

    The health of aggregate company balance sheets highlights that the aerospace, retail, automotive and energy sectors are the most vulnerable to this situation.

    Bankruptcies and “zombification” threaten debt-laden companies

    The “zombie” companies, which continue to operate despite precarious solvency and profitability, could also be pushed into bankruptcy in the coming months.

    More importantly, with more companies forced to leverage debt to cope with revenue losses, the threat of a multiplication of distressed companies is added to the risk of bankruptcy.