Money Buzz! Europa

Tag: gdp

  • Istat forecast a strong GDP contraction in 2020 at -8.3%

    Istat forecast a strong GDP contraction in 2020 at -8.3%

    The Italian Institute of Statistics (Istat) forecast a strong GDP contraction in 2020 (-8.3%) followed by a recovery in 2021 (+4.6%).

    This year, the fall of GDP will be determined mainly by domestic demand net of inventories (-7.2 p.p.) due to the contraction of household and NPISH consumption (-8.7%) and of investments (-12.5%).

    Net exports and inventories will also contribute negatively to GDP growth (respectively -0.3 p.p. and -0.8 p.p.).

    Employment in sharp decline

    Employment trend will follow the GDP trend with a sharp fall in 2020 (-9.3%) and a recovery in 2021 (+4.1%).

    The trend of unemployment rate will be different because it reflects the ricomposition between unemployed and inactive people and the fall in hours worked.

    The households final consumption expenditure deflator will display a negative trend this year (-0.3%) and will marginaly recover the next (+0.7%). followed by a recovery in 2021 (+4.6%).

  • Greek GDP decreased by 1.6% in the 1st quarter of 2020

    Greek GDP decreased by 1.6% in the 1st quarter of 2020

    The available seasonally adjusted data gathered by The Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) indicate that in the 1st quarter of 2020 the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume terms decreased by 1.6% in comparison with the 4th quarter of 2019.

    In comparison with the 1st quarter of 2019, it decreased by 0.9%.

    The available non-seasonally adjusted data indicate that in the 1st quarter of 2020 the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume terms decreased by 1.2% in comparison with the 1st quarter of 2019.

    Total final consumption expenditure recorded an increase of 0.1% in comparison with the 1st quarter of 2019.

    Exports of goods and services increased by 2.5% in comparison with the 1st quarter of 2019. Exports of goods increased by 4.7%, and exports of services increased by 0.01%.

    Imports of goods and services increased by 0.2% in comparison with the 1st quarter of Imports of goods increased by 0.2%, and imports of services increased by 0.3%.

  • Quarterly GDP in Serbia increased by 5%

    Quarterly GDP in Serbia increased by 5%

    The real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, amounted 5.0%, latest Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia data shows.

    According to seasonally adjusted GDP data, gross domestic product decreased by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the previous quarter.

    Observed by activities, in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, significant real growth in the gross value added was recorded in the section of construction – 19.6%, the section of information and communication – 11.8%, the section of public administration and defence; compulsory social security; education and human health and social work activities – 11.8% and the section of industry and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities – 4.5%.

    Observed by expenditure aggregates, in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, real growth was noted as follows:

    • the household final consumption expenditure – 3.2%,
    • the nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISH) final consumption expenditure – 3.4%,
    • the general government final consumption expenditure – 12.0%,
    • gross fixed capital formation – 10.7%,
    • the exports of goods and services – 3.1%,
    • and the import of goods and services – 8.3%.
  • Hungarian GDP rises by 2.2% in the 1st quarter of 2020

    Hungarian GDP rises by 2.2% in the 1st quarter of 2020

    Gross Domestic Product was 2.2% higher in Hungary in the 1st quarter of 2020 than in the corresponding period of the previous year, KSH latest data shows.

    The corona virus pandemic had a negative impact on the performance of most sections, but market services and, to a lesser extent, industry continued to be the driving forces for growth in the 1st quarter as a whole.

    According to seasonally and calendar adjusted and reconciled data the performance of the economy was up by 2.0% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year and decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter.

    Industry went up by 1.7%

    The performance of industry went up by 1.7%, within which that of manufacturing by 1.3% compared to the same period of the previous year.

    Among manufacturing branches, the largest contributors to the growth of industry were the manufacture of electrical equipment and the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products.

    The value added of construction increased by 3.0%. The performance of agriculture decreased by 0.6% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

    The gross value added of services was up by 2.4% in total, the highest growth (8.8%) was reached by information and communication. The value added of wholesale and retail trade and accommodation and food service activities as well as professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities equally rose by 5.0%.

    The performance of financial and insurance activities went up by 4.4%. The total value added of public administration, education and health decreased by 2.8%.

    Services contributed by 1.2 percentage points, industry by 0.4 percentage point and construction by 0.1 percentage point to the 2.2% rise of gross domestic product in the 1st quarter of 2020. 

  • Polish GDP increased by 2% in the 1st quarter of 2020

    Polish GDP increased by 2% in the 1st quarter of 2020

    Gross domestic product (GDP) in the 1st quarter of 2020 was higher by 2.0% year-on-year comparison against 4.8% in the correspording quarter of 2019, latest Central Statistical Office (GUS) data shows.

    In the 1st quarter of 2020 seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) (constant prices, reference year 2010) was lower by 0.4% than in the previous quarter and 1.7% higher than in the 1 st quarter of the previous year.

    In the 1st quarter of 2020 the economic growth came mainly from domestic uses which growth was 1.7% compared to the previous year. It was higher than in the 4th quarter of 2019 (the growth 1.3%).

    It resulted from the increase in gross capital formation by 0.7% (against the decrease by -3,6% in the 4th quarter of 2019).

    Final consumption expenditure increased by 1.8% and was lower than recorded in the 4th quarter of 2019 (the increase by 3.2%). Consumption
    expenditure in the households sector rose by 1.2% and was lower than in the 4th quarter of 2019 (the growth of 3.3%).

    The growth rate of gross fixed capital formation was lower than in the 4th quarter of 2019 and amounted to 0.9% (against 6.1%).

  • Slovakia gross domestic product decreased by 3.9%

    Slovakia gross domestic product decreased by 3.9%

    In the first quarter of 2020 the gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices decreased by 3.9% as compared to the same quarter of 2019. After seasonal adjustment, GDP decreased by 4.1% as compared to the first quarter of 2019 and by 5.4% in comparison with the previous quarter.

    At current prices, GDP in the first quarter of 2020 amounted to 21,433.7 mil. EUR, which represents a decrease of 1 % compared to the 1st quarter of 2019.

    The unfavourable economic development is due to the decline in value added in key industries, especially in car production and in several service sectors.

    External demand made a significant contribution to the decreasing GDP, and the dynamics of its year-on-year decline accelerated. Due to the current situation, the growth of domestic demand is insufficient, with final consumption expenditures in the general government sector growing the most. Investment demand has declined in comparison with previous quarters.

    Total employment in the reference period reached 2,425.8 thousand persons. In com­pa­rison with the first quarter of 2019 it decreased by 0.5%.

    Seasonally adjusted total employment decreased by 0.4% as compared to the first quarter of 2019 and by 0.5% as com­pa­red to the fourth quarter of 2019.

  • Czechia GDP decreased by 3.6% in 1st quarter of 2020

    Czechia GDP decreased by 3.6% in 1st quarter of 2020

    According to a preliminary estimate by The Czech Statistical Office, the gross domestic product decreased in the Q1 2020 by 3.6%, quarter-on-quarter, and by 2.2%, year-on-year.

    The results of the Czech economy in the first three months of 2020 were significantly influenced by the global coronavirus pandemic and government restrictive measures related to it.

    The gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for price effects and seasonally adjusted decreased in the Q1 2020, according to the preliminary estimate, by 3.6% compared to the Q4 2019 and compared to the Q1 2019 it decreased by 2.2%.

    The negative y-o-y GDP development was caused mainly by a decrease in external demand and by lower capital formation. Increasing expenditure of the general government sector had a positive influence.

    The decrease of the gross value added formation was influenced the most by the development in manufacturing and in a group of economic activities of trade, transportation, and accommodation and food service activities.

    Employment remained unchanged in the Q1 2020, compared to the previous quarter; when compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, it decreased by 0.5%.

  • Bulgarian GDP expanded with 2.4% in the first quarter of 2020

    Bulgarian GDP expanded with 2.4% in the first quarter of 2020

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded with 2.4% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter of the previous year and with 0.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 according to National Statistic Institute of Bulgaria.

    Gross Value Added in the first quarter of 2020 amounted to 21 481.0 million BGN.

    In the structure of GDP by the expenditure approach the largest share has the final consumption (84.9%), which in nominal terms is 21 346.5 million BGN.

    In the first quarter of 2020 gross capital formation is 3 649.8 million BGN and has a share of 14.5% in GDP. The external balance (exports minus imports) has a positive sign.

    The first quarter of 2020 GDP at seasonally adjusted data increased by 2.4% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Gross value added increased by 2.3%.

    As regards the expenditure components of GDP, the final consumption registered a positive economic growth of 4.1%. Gross fixed capital formation decreased by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter of the previous year at seasonally adjusted data. Exports of goods and services increased by 1.1% while imports of goods and services decreased by 0.6%.

  • Almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP in 2019 was generated by Germany

    Almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP in 2019 was generated by Germany

    In 2019, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the European Union (EU) stood at around €13 900 billion at current prices. In real terms, the EU’s GDP in 2019 was 17% higher than its level one decade earlier, shows Eurostat.

    Almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP (24.7%) was generated by Germany, followed by France (17.4%) and Italy (12.8%), ahead of Spain (8.9%) and the Netherlands (5.8%).

    At the opposite end of the scale, ten EU Member States contributed less than 1% of the EU’s total GDP: Malta (which had the lowest share of EU GDP at 0.1%), Estonia, Cyprus and Latvia (all 0.2%), Lithuania and Slovenia (both 0.3%), Bulgaria and Croatia (both 0.4%), Luxembourg (0.5%) and Slovakia (0.7%).

    The 19 EU Member States that comprise the euro area had a combined GDP of €11 900 billion and accounted for 85.5% of the EU’s GDP in 2019.

  • Swiss GDP set for sharpest fall in decades

    Swiss GDP set for sharpest fall in decades

    • Swiss GDP to fall very sharply in 2020 in the wake of the measures being taken to contain the coronavirus.
    • Furthermore, the economy is only likely to recover slowly in 2021.
    • All data are available after The Expert Group on Economics has updated its economic forecast.

    The Expert Group on Economic forecasts is expecting GDP adjusted for sporting events to fall by 6.7% in 2020 (March 2020 forecast: −1.5%) and unemployment to average 3.9% over the year as a whole. This would make it the biggest slump in economic activity since 1975.

    A modest recovery should set in with the planned relaxation of health policy measures. However, losses of income caused by an increase in short-time working and rising unemployment as well as the considerable economic uncertainty will limit the amount of lost ground that private consumption will be able to make up in the second half of the year. Overall, private consumption could fall even more sharply than GDP in 2020.

    The Expert Group is also expecting the global economy to mount only a sluggish recovery in subsequent quarters, with key trading partners, chiefly the major southern European countries, facing a particularly fierce battle against lasting consequences of the coronavirus crisis.

    This will hit the segments of Swiss foreign trade that are sensitive to the economic cycle particularly hard. All in all, production capacity in Switzerland is likely to be significantly underutilised and uncertainty extremely high, resulting in a very sharp decline in investments as well as job losses.

    Slow recovery in 2021

    The Expert Group is expecting Swiss GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2021 (March forecast: 3.3%).

    This would be a relatively slow rise from a very low starting point, meaning that the level of GDP seen at the end of 2019 would not yet have been reached by the end of the forecast period.

    An improvement to the situation on the labour market is also expected to be hesitant at best: unemployment is set to rise further to 4.1% in 2021, with employment only likely to see a minimal rise.

  • China’s first ever negative quarterly GDP growth

    China’s first ever negative quarterly GDP growth

    China published its GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2020. GDP grew by -6.8% y/y in Q1 and -9.8% q/q, the first ever negative figure since the start of the Economic Reform in 1978.

    This number is not surprising given the lockdown brought the economy to a near standstill for almost two months.

    China’s latest data bears more significance than normal. With many around the world still in lockdown, they are looking to China to size the economic costs of COVID-19 containment. The key takeaway is that the costs of lockdown are indeed large.

    Economic costs of the COVID-19 lockdown

    China’s economy contracted by 6.8% in Q1 2020, marking it the first contraction since the quarterly data were published since 1992. The previous official contraction in China was recorded in 1976 on an annual basis.

    Industrial production, a gauge of manufacturing, mining and utilities fell by 8.4% in Q1. But withing that IP rose by 1.1% in March. relative to a 13.5% decline in January and February. The March IP figure was much better than expectations of a 6.2% decline from Bloomberg.