Money Buzz! Europa

Tag: italy gdp

  • Italian GDP expected to increase by 4% in 2021

    Italian GDP expected to increase by 4% in 2021

    In 2020 Italian GDP is expected to decrease by 8.9% and then increase in 2021 (+4.0%), latest Istat data shows.

    This year, the domestic demand net of inventories will provide a negative contribution (-7.5 p.p.) together with foreign demand (-1.2 p.p) and inventories (-0.2 p.p).

    In 2021 the domestic demand will provide a positive contribution (+3.8 p.p) together with net exports (+0.3 p.p.) while inventories will contribute negatively to GDP growth (-0.1 p.p.).

    Labour market conditions will follow GDP evolution over the forecast period with a sharp fall in 2020 (-10.0%) and a recovery in 2021 (+3.6%).

    At the same time, the rate of unemployment will decrease at 9.4% in the current year and will increase at 11.0% in 2021.

  • Italian economy recovered slightly in the third quarter

    Italian economy recovered slightly in the third quarter

    In the third quarter, Italy Gross Domestic Product increased by 16.1% with respect to the previous quarter, whereas it decreased by 4.7% over the same quarter of 2019.

    As for external trade, in August, seasonally-adjusted data, compared to July, rose by +3.3% for outgoing flows and by +5.1% for incoming flows.

    Exports grew for both EU countries (+5.3%) and non EU countries (+1.2%). Imports increased by +5.2% for EU countries and by +4.9% for non EU countries.

    Over the last three months, seasonally-adjusted data, compared to the previous three months, increased for both exports (+26.2%) and imports (+18.7%).

    In September, in seasonally adjusted terms, exports to non-EU27countries increased by 8.3% and imports decreased by 2.7% compared with August.

    In September, unemployment continued the decrease already began in August

    In the period July-September, with respect to the previous quarter, employment grew (+0.5%, +113 thousand).

    According to preliminary estimates, in October the rate of change of the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) was +0.2% on monthly basis and -0.3% on annual basis (from -0.6% in September).

    The halving of the decrease of consumer price indices was mainly due to the speed-up of the growth of the prices of unprocessed food and to the reduction of the drop of those of regulated energy products.

  • The Italian executive estimates an economic growth of 6% in 2021

    The Italian executive estimates an economic growth of 6% in 2021

    The Italian government published on Tuesday morning an update of the macroeconomic projections for 2020 and 2021 and estimates that next year the growth of the economy will be 6%, the deficit of 7% of the Gross Domestic Product and the debt of 155.6% of GDP, EFE reports.

    The Italian executive confirmed the estimates advanced last week for 2020: the economy will shrink by 9%, the deficit will stand at 10.8% of GDP and the debt at 158% of GDP.

    Authorities expect growth to be 3.8% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, while the budget deficit will be 4.7% of GDP in 2022 and 3% in 2023.

    Italy is committed to gradually reducing its debt to ”bring it back to pre-coronavirus levels” by the end of the decade. Currently, it is estimated at 154.3% of GDP in 2022 and 154.1% in 2023.

    Italy must send the draft budget and reform plan to the European Commission by mid-October.

    In the short term, measures are being considered to support employees and the productive sectors affected by the coronavirus pandemic, but will also include ”deep and high-impact investments and reforms”, such as ”a comprehensive fiscal reform that improves equity, efficiency and the transparency of the tax system”, to reduce the tax burden on families and to fight against evasion.

    There will be aid for families with children, support for digitalisation and infrastructure, all this ”at the same time as the constant reduction of public debt”.

  • Italy GDP decreased by 12.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2020

    Italy GDP decreased by 12.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2020

    In the second quarter of 2020 Italian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 12.8 per cent to the previous quarter and by 17.7 per cent in comparison with the second quarter of 2019.

    Compared to previous quarter, final consumption expenditure decreased by 8.7 per cent, gross fixed capital formation by 14.9 per cent, imports and exports by 20.5 per cent and 26.4 per cent respectively.

    Compared to the second quarter of 2019, final consumption expenditure decreased by 13.7 per cent, gross fixed capital formation by 21.6 per cent, imports by 26.8 per cent, and exports by 33.1 per cent.

    The carry-over annual GDP growth for 2020 is equal to -14.7 per cent.

  • Italy GDP, -12,4% in the second quarter of 2020

    Italy GDP, -12,4% in the second quarter of 2020

    In the second quarter of 2020 Italy Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 12.4 per cent with respect to the previous quarter and by 17.3 per cent over the same quarter of previous year, Istat shows.

    The second quarter of 2020 has had one working day less than both the previous and the same quarter of previous year.

    The quarter on quarter change is the result of a decrease of value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing, in that of industry as well as in services.

    From the demand side, there is a negative contribution both by the domestic component (gross of change in inventories) and the net export component.

    The carry-over annual GDP growth for 2020 is equal to -14.3%.

  • Istat forecast a strong GDP contraction in 2020 at -8.3%

    Istat forecast a strong GDP contraction in 2020 at -8.3%

    The Italian Institute of Statistics (Istat) forecast a strong GDP contraction in 2020 (-8.3%) followed by a recovery in 2021 (+4.6%).

    This year, the fall of GDP will be determined mainly by domestic demand net of inventories (-7.2 p.p.) due to the contraction of household and NPISH consumption (-8.7%) and of investments (-12.5%).

    Net exports and inventories will also contribute negatively to GDP growth (respectively -0.3 p.p. and -0.8 p.p.).

    Employment in sharp decline

    Employment trend will follow the GDP trend with a sharp fall in 2020 (-9.3%) and a recovery in 2021 (+4.1%).

    The trend of unemployment rate will be different because it reflects the ricomposition between unemployed and inactive people and the fall in hours worked.

    The households final consumption expenditure deflator will display a negative trend this year (-0.3%) and will marginaly recover the next (+0.7%). followed by a recovery in 2021 (+4.6%).

  • Almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP in 2019 was generated by Germany

    Almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP in 2019 was generated by Germany

    In 2019, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the European Union (EU) stood at around €13 900 billion at current prices. In real terms, the EU’s GDP in 2019 was 17% higher than its level one decade earlier, shows Eurostat.

    Almost a quarter of the EU’s GDP (24.7%) was generated by Germany, followed by France (17.4%) and Italy (12.8%), ahead of Spain (8.9%) and the Netherlands (5.8%).

    At the opposite end of the scale, ten EU Member States contributed less than 1% of the EU’s total GDP: Malta (which had the lowest share of EU GDP at 0.1%), Estonia, Cyprus and Latvia (all 0.2%), Lithuania and Slovenia (both 0.3%), Bulgaria and Croatia (both 0.4%), Luxembourg (0.5%) and Slovakia (0.7%).

    The 19 EU Member States that comprise the euro area had a combined GDP of €11 900 billion and accounted for 85.5% of the EU’s GDP in 2019.