Money Buzz! Europa

Tag: Serbia GDP

  • Erste Group expects an economic upturn for CEE countries in 2021

    Erste Group expects an economic upturn for CEE countries in 2021

    The corona pandemic caused the CEE economies to enter into recession in 2020, although that economic contraction has turned out to be less severe than had been originally assumed.

    While the impact on Serbia was comparatively mild with a GDP decline of -1.1% in 2020, the Croatian economy plunged by -8.5% compared with 2019.

    In Austria, the GDP decline in the past year was also comparatively strong at -7.2%.

    According to preliminary data, the GDP downturn in 2020 amounted to -5.6% in the Czech Republic, -5.2% in Slovakia, -5.1% in Hungary and -3.9% in Romania.

    Erste Group sees a turnaround in 2021, with the strongest GDP growth expected in Hungary (+5.5%) and Serbia (+5.0%).

    The economies of Croatia, Romania and Slovakia should all also grow by more than 4%, with the Czech Republic very close behind with an expected rise of 3.9%.

    The GDP dynamic that some CEE countries evidenced in the final quarter of 2020 gives reason for optimism: the Hungarian, Slovak and Romanian economies unexpectedly posted growth in Q4 2020 compared with the preceding quarter.

  • Serbia gross domestic product decreased by 9.2% in the second quarter

    Serbia gross domestic product decreased by 9.2% in the second quarter

    According to seasonally adjusted GDP data, gross domestic product decreased by 9.2% in the second quarter of 2020, compared to the previous quarter.

    In the second quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, significant real fall in the gross value added was recorded in the section of wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transportation and storage and accommodation and food service activities – 16.7%, the section of industry and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities – 7.7%, and the section of professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative and support service activities – 20.6%.

    Significant real growth in the gross value added was recorded in the section of information and communication – 5.4% and the section of public administration and defence; compulsory social security; education and human health and social work activities – 7.1%.

    Real growth was noted only for the general government final consumption expenditure – 8.9%.

    Real fall was registered for all other aggregates: the household final consumption expenditure – 8.0%, the non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) final consumption expenditure – 4.7%, gross fixed capital formation – 11.9%, the exports of goods and services – 20.7% and the import of goods and services – 19.3%.

  • World Bank sees the deepest recession since the Second World War

    World Bank sees the deepest recession since the Second World War

    According to World Bank forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year. 

    That would represent the deepest recession since the Second World War, with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870, the World Bank says in its June 2020 Global Economic Prospects.

    Economic activity among advanced economies is anticipated to shrink 7% in 2020 as domestic demand and supply, trade, and finance have been severely disrupted.

    Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to shrink by 2.5% this year, their first contraction as a group in at least sixty years.

    Per capita incomes are expected to decline by 3.6%, which will tip millions of people into extreme poverty this year.

    In CEE, Serbia has the slowest GDP decline this year and Croatia the biggest growth in 2021

    For the Bulgarian economy, the forecast is a decline of 6.2% for 2020 and a recovery next year to a growth of 4.3%. 

    Croatia will suffer a GDP decline of -9.3% in 2020 and a recovery of 5.4% in 2021.

    Hungarian economy will have a decline of -5.0% this year and a rise of 4.5% next year.

    Poland is in a better situation with an economic decline of -4.2% in 2020, but a slower recovery, of just 2.8% in 2021.

    For Romania, GDP will decrease by -5.7% this year and a rise of 5.4% in 2021.

    Serbian GDP will decline by -2.5% in 2020 and a recovery of 4.0% in 2021.

  • Quarterly GDP in Serbia increased by 5%

    Quarterly GDP in Serbia increased by 5%

    The real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, amounted 5.0%, latest Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia data shows.

    According to seasonally adjusted GDP data, gross domestic product decreased by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the previous quarter.

    Observed by activities, in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, significant real growth in the gross value added was recorded in the section of construction – 19.6%, the section of information and communication – 11.8%, the section of public administration and defence; compulsory social security; education and human health and social work activities – 11.8% and the section of industry and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities – 4.5%.

    Observed by expenditure aggregates, in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, real growth was noted as follows:

    • the household final consumption expenditure – 3.2%,
    • the nonprofit institutions serving households (NPISH) final consumption expenditure – 3.4%,
    • the general government final consumption expenditure – 12.0%,
    • gross fixed capital formation – 10.7%,
    • the exports of goods and services – 3.1%,
    • and the import of goods and services – 8.3%.